The Graduates Worth Betting On

Underemployment

The challenge for graduates is underemployment rather than unemployment. Around 5-6% of graduates are out of work in the US and UK. That’s not bad based on historical averages.

The problem is many are not doing the job they want or studied to get. In the US, graduate underemployment is running at 41%[i].

AI is not a direct cause. If it were, we’d expect to see AI requirements filling job descriptions. Candidates would be rearranging CVs to showcase AI successes. There is little evidence of either, according to Ben Zweig, CEO of Revelio, an HR database.

Uncertainty over AI may be an issue, however. Investing in graduates means a three-year commitment to retain and train talent. Managers aren’t sure what AI will be able to do by 2028. Faced with existing economic uncertainty, this additional unpredictability triggers a wait-and-see response.

This is a source of further delay and frustration for many graduates. What can they do to adapt?

An Unsatisfactory Experience

I’ve seen a few stories pop up about how students are not enjoying the same university experience as their parents. They were brought up on tales of wild times, making lifelong friends and getting a leg-up into the job market. That is not today’s experience.

What changed is that half the population now goes to university. It has become a factory process aimed at pushing as many as possible into postgraduate studies. The competition for housing means picking and sticking to a social group that may not work out as planned. Then, once half of the competition have a degree, you no longer stand out in the job market.

An MBA used to be a ticket to running a department. Now it makes you a senior analyst at best. The qualification still demonstrates commitment and is a strong signal for women in particular, to show employers how serious you are about a career. When you are over $100,000 in debt, you are not going to give up work to start a family.

It is important for graduates to reduce an employers’ risk of hiring them. They need to demonstrate reliability and trustworthiness. What does that look like?

A family friend recently landed a job with a leading publisher of financial journalism. The interview was all about their experience working in retail to help fund their studies. References were checked. The new employer took care to verify our friend showed up on time every day and took on new responsibilities throughout their three years in the shop. It seems firms are worried about attendance and attitude among young workers.

Reducing Risk

Zweig’s advice for graduate job seekers is twofold. The first is to study and pay for a course that is relevant to potential employers. In his spare time he teaches at NYU, so he has reason to say this, albeit with the knowledge it works.

The second is to gain experience overseeing end-to-end projects. While employers are uncertain about what AI will do over the next three years, they see the opportunity for increased task automation. New hires will be much more likely to run a process from day one, rather than being trained to complete a task for a couple of years, before stepping up to an oversight role.

I chaired the Ball Committee while at university. I had a year to put on Oxford’s largest celebration, managing everything from entertainment to security. I was responsible for the finances and tax returns, as well as attending magistrates court to get a liquor licence. Most of my early job interviews spent much of the time talking about this experience.

As an employer, you want reassurance that you are hiring a graduate who is committed and will stay around. You offer training and career progression to make a role attractive, but need to know you will get a financial return on your investment.

The best way for candidates to demonstrate this is through experience managing end-to-end projects. These need not have anything to do with AI. What they do show, however, is that you view work as more than extension of college and you are not just showing up expecting to be told what to do.

The chances are that by 2028 your role will be orchestrating AI agents doing tasks that your predecessors used to perform. This puts a significant premium on understanding the purpose of a process or project from day one. The best way to demonstrate that is by having run one before.

Questions to Ask and Answer

1. Is my hiring process overly focused on credentials?

2. How do I value life experiences among candidates?

3. What steps am I taking to de-risk the hiring process?

[i] Federal Reserve Bank of New York