How to increase confidence with certainty and control

Fear of Flying

My wife is a nervous flyer but a confident driver. She prefers to be in control of her journey. I have faith in the data and know that flying is the safer form of travel. It probably shows in my driving.

You may recognise these character traits from last week’s letter.

Peter Atwater uses a flight to illustrate his Confidence Map. This shows how increasing certainty and control raise confidence.

Most people get this wrong because they’ve been told confidence comes through willpower. Then they try and force their will on others. Positive thinking only works when it is the right type of thinking.

Atwater uses a 2x2 matrix with four quadrants. Each is named for a stage of a flight. The metaphor works for passengers except when raising confidence through control. My wife knows only the pilot has this option.

Fortunately, the logic works better for managing and selling.

Managing Confidence

Most startups fail and most people working in them know it. They want equity because if they’re taking a longshot they want rewarding if it works. The startups most likely to scale provide options for everyone.

You increase certainty with structured remuneration packages. If everything depends on a successful exit, you need to chart the path to one. Alternatively, you improve certainty with clear commission and bonus structures.

Increasing control is easier. Give people a say in their goals and how they are measured. Allow flexible working and encourage personal development. The more agency people have, the more confident they are working with you.

The Confidence Map

This matrix adapts the Confidence Map. Your buyer starts in the stress centre with no confidence your product does what it says. This is why it is pointless trying to sell by listing features.

You increase certainty with stories of success and a transparent sales process with lots of interaction. The buyer has more control when there is a trial period, a money back option, or they can pick and choose functionality.

Overcoming Bias with Bias

Hyperbolic discounting is the preference for near-term rewards. It’s one reason that deferred remuneration does not motivate everyone. Long term incentives are too far in the future.

By dividing a project into smaller pieces you take advantage of the Goal Gradient Effect. Confidence in a successful outcome increases the closer you are to completion. It is one reason development is broken down into short sprints. More completions mean more success and greater confidence.

I started at Liquidnet as a product manager. I worked with John in front end development to have shorter and regular release cycles. I wanted greater control over timing to keep commitments to stakeholders and clients, and increased certainty we would not roll back releases. This happened a lot because occasional, large releases had more features that could go wrong.

The customer support team were unhappy. More releases meant more work and were stressful. We needed to automate part of the release process to enable them to deliver on time. Fortunately, Tom on my team knew this and worked to make it happen before we made the switch. The lesson is to watch out for secondary effects of your actions.

Try these Exercises

I include exercises in these letters to bring the science and stories alive. You can read about driving and watch people do it, but until you sit in the seat you learn little.

Start by thinking about the sales process for your product. Write down three ways to increase control for the buyer. Be specific, so if you choose money-back, note how much, when and under what conditions. It’s hard to hand back cash when you need it to grow.

Now write three ways to increase certainty. Consider your case studies and pick a target client for each. Write down why it is relevant for them. Now think about ways in which you can shed light on the delivery process for clients. It’s your equivalent of the car driving around on the Uber app.

Tackling Turbulence

British Airways offers courses for nervous flyers. One tactic is to sit by a window and watch the wing tip during turbulence. The visible range of movement is much less than the churn in your stomach.

My wife will never be as confident flying as I am. Neither of us have any control and I may be overconfident. But we both know what to do in bad weather to increase her certainty that all is well.

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